Bring a Trailer Sales Data

[juddster]

I was going to use Bring a Trailer (BaT) to sell my MK4 and had gone through the entire process. I only had to tell them to list it. Everything else was done. I had a thought that maybe the late November early December timeframe may not be the best time to sell so I went back to fall of 2021 BaT sales for roadsters. I mapped out price over time. Found some interesting data. Turns out that time of year is the worst time to sell just for getting a better price. See the chart below. The lowest sales prices repeat starting in October(ish) and continue through the end of the year. Some years pick up quickly after the first of the year. Also, prices have been dropping over the last couple years. Was going to list the car this month but sold the car locally.

One last nugget. The roadsters that had a Coyote sold, on average, for $16K more. (w/o Coyote: avg price $46,458, w/Coyote: avg price $62,913). Red dots are the sales with a Coyote.

There are 184 roadster sales in the data.

[J R Jones]

Judd,
This chart is just FFR MK4 or 3, 2, & 1 as well?
No other replica brands?
184 is a lot of FFR resales in three years. I wonder how many new kits were delivered in that period.
Like with Harley Davidsons, the used market is HD's biggest competitor.
jim

[juddster]

Judd,
This chart is just FFR MK4 or 3, 2, & 1 as well?
No other replica brands?
184 is a lot of FFR resales in three years. I wonder how many new kits were delivered in that period.
Like with Harley Davidsons, the used market is HD's biggest competitor.
jim

These are MK4,3,2, and 1. No other replica brands.

[mrglaeser]

Very cool collection of data. I wonder were most those Coyotes are also IRS? I would think IRS would have one Price increase and Coyote another. Is there enough detail in your data to classify more?

[Jeff Kleiner]

...184 is a lot of FFR resales in three years. I wonder how many new kits were delivered in that period...

Average 10 per week so approximately 1,500 over 3 years.

Jeff

[juddster]

Very cool collection of data. I wonder were most those Coyotes are also IRS? I would think IRS would have one Price increase and Coyote another. Is there enough detail in your data to classify more?

I didn't dig that deep. I thought about logging more deciding factors like IRS, but ended up just looking at the titles.

[Al_C]

Thanks for compiling this data, Judd! Your scatter diagram is an interesting representation. I suspect you have the average sale price by month available; it would be interesting to see those numbers too.

I have heard that sale prices have been in a slow decline and you can see that in your graph. I wonder why that is happening? Aging buyers? Market saturation? Would love to hear what others think the reasons are.

[drewr]

A nice Mk IV with a SBF 347 just sold today for $49K. In keeping with your graph. Why? I think aging buyers is part of it. The age of the hot rod is waning. It's not gone, but not part of the monoculture the way it used to be. When I drive my Coupe around, every male older than 50 knows exactly what it is. Most middle aged women think it's a Ferrari. Most young women have zero interest. Many young men think it's cool, but don't really know what to make of it. It must be bad because it sucks down gasoline, makes exhaust and is decidedly anti-green. But it's loud, fast and *****in'. Anything transgressive still appeals! Once they get to see it up close or ride in it, they are won over. Maybe us car guys just need to up our PR game and become better ambassadors for the hobby.

[289 4spd]

Now don't shoot the messenger here, but let us really think about this for a minute. There are far too many variables here that we can't account for, so ultimately there isn't much use for this limited data set.

No disrespect is meant whatsoever, just a thoughtful analysis. With this data we see a low sales pattern for a certain time of year, so that is potentially useful for a future prediction. But any number of variables in life could change drastically making the future market bear no resemblance to what has once passed.

Keep in mind that this is only one sales source of one specific type of replica, so it doesn't necessarily hold true that any trends noted here will carry over to the replica cobra market at large. We need much more data. In addition, there are several variables here that prevent much useful analysis of the sales numbers:

- We don't know the overall build quality of each car, and frankly without an in person inspection it is unwise to judge by pictures alone
- There are varying degrees of picture and write up quality for each auction, along with seller responsiveness which can easily scare off people from an otherwise good car
- Price is hard to compare since the players in the room with each auction are different each time (Each auction could have been far different on $ outcome with different people bidding)
- Color may be a far more important variable overall for a buyer than build options, however this is just speculation I have no data either way
- Perceived value is impossible to account for (IE Coyote vs Windsor) Everyone has a different opinion of what is better just like the color

All of this being said, I believe this proves the point that there are a lot of things in life that can't be reduced to a data set.

For those interested, here is a much larger data set that although interesting, has the same set of problems if we try to analyze too deeply.

https://www.classic.com/m/shelby/cobra/replica

[Peter Ross]

The graph looks like BaT's graph.
The first thing to do is read every comment. The comments tell a story.
The bottom line is it matters who built the car, period.
Using social media in an attempt to promote the hobby isn't going to fool the buyers who know what they are looking at. If Jeff Kleiner or Mike Everson built the cars the buyer has peace of mind it was built to the highest standards. That is not meant to take away anything from those who put their hearts and souls into their builds. Those accomplishments hold greater value to the builder's. BaT buyers in the know don't care, they want provenance.
I applaud anyone who completes their builds and drives them safely with pride and honor. You are all heroes. Don't let BaT kill the spirit of the builds. Do realize those values are based on a very critical audience.
Full disclosure. I lost confidence in my ability to build my Coupe-R and reached out to Mike Everson for peace of mind and resale value. I feel I can build anything but time was passing quickly and I felt guilty working on my car while customer boats (performance sailboats) and cars sat, even after hours

My BaT experience https://bringatrailer.com/listing/19...olet-blazer-5/

[Rebostar]

I just recently had the BaT experience and found it lacking. My intention was to sell the Thunderbolt clone I built that appraised at 65K. Won 48 awards over 6 years. High bid was $40K. Folks on the site were blown away at the lack of bidding. I started the BaT process in the June of 23. It took them 3 months to get it listed. So the Fall/winter price lag quoted above is very accurate. The good news was, a person who saw the listing contacted me in January and bought it.
I had wanted a 69 Mach 1 since high school. My $50K would only buy a warmed over 351w version. So I had a choice. #1 Buy a worn out 69 Mach 1, blow it up, then build it back right with new performance parts with an all in price of $80K....or...#2, Buy a FFR MK4 with all the bells and wistles for $25K then build the Windsor based 427 and new TKX and all new parts in the entire car for another $25K. Voila.. $50K for a completely new car that will blow the doors off any 1969 Mach 1...AND I get to spend a year of quality time doing the build.
The only down side is, as mentioned above, none of the younger folks have any intrest in these (or any muscle) cars. I have 2 married male nephews in their 30's and two single grandaughters in their 20's and if they can't do it on their phones they are not interested. So no one to share the build with.

Rebostar

[J R Jones]

Now don't shoot the messenger here, but let us really think about this for a minute. There are far too many variables here that we can't account for, so ultimately there isn't much use for this limited data set.

No disrespect is meant whatsoever, just a thoughtful analysis. With this data we see a low sales pattern for a certain time of year, so that is potentially useful for a future prediction. But any number of variables in life could change drastically making the future market bear no resemblance to what has once passed.

Keep in mind that this is only one sales source of one specific type of replica, so it doesn't necessarily hold true that any trends noted here will carry over to the replica cobra market at large. We need much more data. In addition, there are several variables here that prevent much useful analysis of the sales numbers:

- We don't know the overall build quality of each car, and frankly without an in person inspection it is unwise to judge by pictures alone
- There are varying degrees of picture and write up quality for each auction, along with seller responsiveness which can easily scare off people from an otherwise good car
- Price is hard to compare since the players in the room with each auction are different each time (Each auction could have been far different on $ outcome with different people bidding)
- Color may be a far more important variable overall for a buyer than build options, however this is just speculation I have no data either way
- Perceived value is impossible to account for (IE Coyote vs Windsor) Everyone has a different opinion of what is better just like the color

All of this being said, I believe this proves the point that there are a lot of things in life that can't be reduced to a data set.

For those interested, here is a much larger data set that although interesting, has the same set of problems if we try to analyze too deeply.

https://www.classic.com/m/shelby/cobra/replica

Data is data. Professionals rely on sales history to buy and sell. Actually many in your Classic.com list are professional flippers, they buy low and sell high. a 25% margin is not unusual, and is not value added for the builder. In any case extranious circumstances can influence a sale price. When the making the sale is the priority, a low price will hasten the deal.
Professionals scan (OEM) VINs and softwear gives them local sale history of similar models over any period of time. They live and succeed with data.
BaT lends professionalism to a sale with photos and presentaton. If you compare that to ebay, expect lower numbers. Craigslist lower still. Facebook is likely the cheapest replica source. Factor those three into the BaT graph and the trend would be lower turn-over numbers.
jim

[GoDadGo]

I look at graphs like this, not for car values, all the time so thanks for compiling this data.
The decline in prices of our cars, though slight, is truly a sign of our economic times.
With that being said, let us all go back to days gone by:

https://youtu.be/_SVSak1oBCw

[bobl]

I suspect the cars on the lower end of the spectrum are older donor builds, while the Coyote builds are mostly newer, higher quality non donor builds. Huge difference in cost and of course resale value.

[JohnK]

I'm curious where you got that data from. Here's what I'm seeing on BaT when I look at price history for Factory Five Mk4 completed sales. The majority of sales are between $40K and $60K with some outliers up into the mid $70K's. The $105K outlier is the charity auction that just sold in January. If your data includes all generations of roadsters, then any price decline trend is likely being driven by the declining value (relative to the newer Mk4's) of the older generation cars as time goes by. The Mk4's, for now at least, appear to be pretty stable in value.

[juddster]

I'm curious where you got that data from. Here's what I'm seeing on BaT when I look at price history for Factory Five Mk4 completed sales. The majority of sales are between $40K and $60K with some outliers up into the mid $70K's. The $105K outlier is the charity auction that just sold in January. If your data includes all generations of roadsters, then any price decline trend is likely being driven by the declining value (relative to the newer Mk4's) of the older generation cars as time goes by. The Mk4's, for now at least, appear to be pretty stable in value.

I did a search for Factory Five and then went through each listing for a roadster regardless of it being a MK1,2,3 or 4. I logged the final price (sold or unsold) and the date and dumped it into excel. That's it. I kept the unsold because those final bids still represent the maximum someone was willing to pay.

I considered looking at other factors but simply didn't want to spend the time. Needed a quick trend, which I got, on when a good time to sell is. Gathering the Coyote data was easy because it is put in the title and I didn't have to open the listing to get it.

[Papa]

Here is the data for each model:

MK1:



MK2:



MK3:



MK4:

[JohnK]

Needed a quick trend, which I got, on when a good time to sell is.

I think there's waaaaay too much going on in this dataset to draw this conclusion, or any conclusions for that matter. There are just too many variables (generation, age, engine, color, location to name just a few I'd want to analyze) that would need to be accounted for before any conclusions could be drawn on a price trend.

[ggunter]

Very interesting data. Personally, I would think these cars should go for more than they do considering most of the sales figures would only cover cost of the car with zero labor added in the price. I think another interesting piece of data would be the average age of original FFR buyers. Just a guess but I would think the average age would be 40-60 first time kit buyers.

[J R Jones]

I suspect the cars on the lower end of the spectrum are older donor builds, while the Coyote builds are mostly newer, higher quality non donor builds. Huge difference in cost and of course resale value.

The iconic Cobra is behind this replica industry and some builders focus on originality for aethetics and simplicity. None of this data identifies that segment, but it appears to be a minority.
Ambition?
A Mustang that looks like a Cobra? (Coyote)
A Corvette that looks like a Cobra. (SBC)
jim

[defilade]

The supply of replica Cobras is constantly growing and that will always put downward pressure on prices. The value in these cars is in the experience, not in selling them.

[History350]

Well here is another sample for your test case, my car just went on BAT this week. We shall see how she does!
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/fa...3-roadster-21/

[toadster]

love it - almost ChatGPT type data

[BEAR-AvHistory]

Very nice car, best of luck with the auction.

[PissedOffPony]

Good luck History350, as it's a good-looking car!
What made you go with Bat? I don't know anything about them, just genuinely curious. Any thoughts of a collector car auction instead?