Nuisance,
Your measurment of toe is being thrown off by tire scrub. As the suspension moves up and down the wheels do not stay exactly the same distance apart due to the arc the control arms travel. So even if the steering angle was fixed you would be seeing an arc in your laser pointer dots. My guess is that is the difference between your spacer dimension and what we came up with, however alignment settings can have a significant affect as well because they alter both control arm length (camber) and tie rod height (caster). You can still measure bump steer with a laser pointer you just have to compare a point equal distance out the back side to seperate the turning motion from the scrub motion.

Sponaugle,
In your picture your lines have to pass through the outer pivot points of the lower arms, the Subaru arms are deceptive in that the center of the lower ball joint is not in the arm but is up in the spindle. So your line for the lower arm is way to low on the outside. Moving that line up would give you a much closer intersection like you are talking about.